Can They Run The Table?

Texans starting quarterback Matt Schaub injured his foot in Week 10, Back-up Matt Leinart stepped in and promptly broke his collar bone. For most NFL teams, that would simply be it. Instead, rookie third stringer T.J. Yates stepped in and ensured the franchise's first playoff berth and first division title. Great story right? Well.... not so much.

The Texans have limped into Wild Card Weekend with a three game losing streak and a mountain of concerns. On the forefront of those concerns is their opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, the same team that T.J Yates drove down the field on in the fourth quarter twice in the fourth quarter for touchdowns, both at the end of drives over 80 yards. That won't sit well with the Bengals coming into this week's contest with a grudge.

The reason for T.J. Yates success against the Bengals earlier this season was two fold. One, no defense will play a pass heavy defense against a third string quarterback, especially when they are facing the leagues second ranked rushing attack. These run heavy defensive sets brought extra corner and safety help into the box in preparation for the Texans to lean on that run game, which is to be expected when injuries to the quarterback makes a team one-dimensional. With every extra pass rusher coming in the from the Bengals run blitz, another receiver pops open for eight to twelve yards. T.J. Yates surprised the Bengals by completing those passes and that was the difference in the game.

It won't be this time.

I expect that the Texans will strive for balance but will ultimately be forced to lean again on the run game. The Bengals will hold linebackers at home and avoid bringing the rush to keep them in the running lanes, forcing Yates to make tougher throws out towards the sidelines. Expect stacked boxes of seven and eight defenders and a tight cover two on the majority of snaps from the Bengals defense. This set would be a bad idea versus the likes of Drew Brees or Matt Ryan who have several deep threats to exploit the man coverages along the sidelines. A double move or a "sluggo" route can put the lights out. the Bengals have no such fears with T.J. Yates. they will likely make him throw tougher routes from the pocket while favoring the run coverage.

When you put T.J. Yates up against Andy Dalton, the Bengals have the edge. I expect a Bengals victory on the road in Houston. Give me Cinci by 11.