Repeat after me... Don't pay CJ2K!

At the risk of being stricken down by the football gods, I am going out on a bit of a limb here. I would not pay Chris Johnson any more than the average of the top five half backs in the NFL. I know... I know... He raced for over 2,000 rushing yards in 2009! He is probably the best running back in the league today unless you live in Minnesota. I will be the first to admit that each of those statements are probably true. Having said that, it is the drive that pushes his frantic running style that I believe paying him too much would destroy.

Consider offense exhibit A, Shaun Alexander. Shaun lost the NFL rushing title by 1 yard to the New York Jets' Curtis Martin in 2004 and then followed that season with an 1880 yard effort that brought him both the rushing title and the leagues coveted MVP award in 2005. The Seahawks watched Alexander shred defenses and never endure injury in each of the final two years of his standing contract and then decided to pay the man. In early 2006, after Seattle's failed Superbowl bid, the team resigned Shaun to an eight year, 62 million dollar contract extension. The result... Alexander the great became one of the worst backs in the NFL. At times, he would literally fall down a moment before an oncoming defender would even touch him. His final two seasons in Seattle failed to generate higher than a 3.4 YPC average and Shaun was released to continue his mediocrity with the Washington Redskins where he was quickly released as well.

I am not suggesting that players earn their money and then lay down. I am not positing that Chris Johnson will deliver as poor a return on investment as Shaun Alexander did for Seattle. I am merely saying that there exists a tenacity that is lost when desperation wanes. We have to expect that a hungry man will steal, a wounded animal might snap at you, and a newly wealthy man will be subject to all of the added distractions and changing motivations that come with it. Human nature is to rest when you reach the peak, not to keep trying.

When Chris Johnson becomes the highest paid running back in history, and he will, it is all too likely that he will join the ranks of the NFL's former greyhounds. When they finally caught the rabbit, they never raced again.